FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver is playing with his...numbers again. If he's not careful, he might go blind! [big evil grin] It's an interesting look at the polling numbers and what they'd mean in terms of electoral counts. Bottom line: President Obama is well-liked.
Where would Barack Obama be re-elected if an election were held today?
We can't know for sure, and it would depend on many contingencies, such as the identity of his Republican opponent. One quick-and-dirty way to assess this question, however, is to look at those states where Obama's approval rating is 50 percent or higher. Based on a compilation of public polls since February 15th, that appears to be the case in the following states:
Now, how did we come up with these numbers? We did a lot of work, that's how. First, we compiled a database of all publicly-available Obama approval and favorability numbers since February 15th, since which time Obama's approval ratings have been exceptionally steady. (Obama's disapproval ratings have increased some over this period, but we're only looking at the approval side of the coin for this exercise). A maximum of one poll was used in each state from each survey firm; this totals 88 polls in all, covering 39 of the 50 states.